Welcome back to the 20th installment of the Safe Withdrawal Rate series. Check out Part 1 to jump to the beginning of the series and for links to the other parts! This is a follow-up from last week’s post on equity glidepaths to address a few more open questions:
Some more details on the mechanics of the glidepath and why it’s so successful in smoothing out Sequence of Return Risk.
Additional calculations requested by readers last week: shorter horizons, other glidepaths, etc.
Why are my results so different from the Michael Kitces and Wade Pfau research? Hint: Historical Simulations vs. Monte Carlo Simulations.
One of the most requested topics for our Safe Withdrawal Rate Series (see here to start at Part 1 of our series) has been how to optimally model a dynamic stock/bond allocation in retirement. Of course, as a mostly passive investor, I prefer to not get too much into actively and tactically timing the equity share. But strategically and deterministically shifting between stocks and bonds along a “glidepath” in retirement might be something to consider!
This topic also ties very nicely into the discussion I had with Jonathan and Brad in the ChooseFI podcast episode on Sequence of Return Risk. In the podcast, I hinted at some of my ongoing research on designing glidepaths that could potentially alleviate, albeit not eliminate, Sequence Risk. I also hinted at the benefits of glidepaths in Part 13 (a simple glidepath captures all the benefits of the much more cumbersome “Prime Harvesting” method) and Part 16 (a glidepath seems like a good and robust way of dealing with a Jack Bogle 4% equity return scenario for the next 10 years).
The idea behind a glidepath is that if we start with a relatively low equity weight and then move up the equity allocation over time we effectively take our withdrawals mostly out of the bond portion of the portfolio during the first few years. If the equity market were to go down during this time, we’d avoid selling our equities at rock bottom prices. That should help with Sequence of Return Risk!
So, will a glidepath eliminate or at least alleviate Sequence Risk? How much exactly can we benefit from this glidepath approach? For that, we’d have to run some simulations… Read More »
Though, before we get started, I got a favor to ask: The nomination phase for the 2018 Plutus Awards is underway until September 8. Please take the time to nominate your favorite bloggers and podcasters to give them the recognition they deserve:
You don’t have to fill out the entire form and you can nominate each blog/podcast in multiple categories. And if you like that one blog that does a lot of research on Safe Withdrawal Rates and publishes case studies for fellow FIRE enthusiasts and other fun personal finance content (wink, wink) please consider nominating it in one (or all?) of the following categories:
Best New Personal Finance Blog (Yes, that blog was started in 2016!)
Best Financial Independence/Early Retirement Blog
Best Investing Blog
Best Retirement Blog
But now back to our case study. Mrs. Greece, not her real name, not even her country of origin, contacted me a while back and wanted me to take a look at her financial situation. Here’s Mrs. Greece’s background…Read More »