Some of my Thoughts on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

As a follow-up to yesterday’s guest post, here are a few of my own thoughts about the challenges and opportunities. For full disclosure, I don’t currently own or have ever owned Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency myself. I reached Financial Independence (FI) years ago the old fashioned way with equities and a little bit of real estate. Only a few weeks away from early retirement, I have no need to throw “Hail Mary passes” with my money! But just because I’m interested in finance and technology I should have an opinion, of course, so here are some of my random thoughts in random order on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies…Read More »

Advertisements

Guest Post: Should you invest in Stocks or Bitcoin?

Hard to believe that this blog has been around for almost two years and I never wrote anything about Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies. I will have some more of my own thoughts and comments in tomorrow’s weekly Wednesday post but to set the stage, our online buddy Matt Paulson has agreed to write a guest post on the topic. Matt runs a site called MarketBeat which is pretty neat. It has a lot of free information, including all the interesting stats on earnings history/forecasts, dividend history, SEC filings, etc. for individual stocks. I don’t think I have seen all that information aggregated so nicely anywhere else, see below:

MarketBeat screenshot.png

In any case, here’s the guest post on Bitcoin, take it away Matt…

Bio: Matthew Paulson is the founder of MarketBeat, an Inc. 5000 financial media company that empowers retail investors to make better trading decisions by providing real-time financial data and objective market research.

The stock market continues to soar, reaching new highs on a regular basis. Many people attribute this to the brighter macroeconomic outlook, lower taxes and less regulation, so markets find it easier to price future expectations. This has led to record highs for both bitcoin and the stock market. However, individuals need to be careful when making an investment. Although bitcoin may appear to be the wave of the future, we need to understand the benefits and drawbacks of both stocks and cryptocurrencies to ensure they make the decision that is right for their unique needs.Read More »

How much of a Random Walk is the Stock Market?

A controversial topic for today. Or maybe not controversial at all – we’ll see. This topic has been on my mind for a long time and I’ve mentioned this in passing in some of my posts over the last few months: The stock market isn’t really precisely a random walk! And just for the record: I am not saying that I am in possession of any kind of formula to perfectly predict tomorrow’s equity performance. My guess is just as good as anyone else’s. On a scale from 0 to 10, where 10 is a Random Walk and 0 is perfectly deterministic and forecastable, I’d still call the stock market a 9.9. But there are few peculiar features in the last 140+ years of equity returns that are clearly at odds with the Random Walk Hypothesis. So, let’s look at some of the small quirks I found and what they mean for us in the Personal Finance community…
Read More »

Ten Lessons From Ten Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Studies

Last week, we published the Tenth Safe Withdrawal Rate Study! Amazing how time flies! I did about one case study every three weeks for the last 6 months! And I could even include another one if I were to count the one I did for the ChooseFI podcast back in 2017. In fact, the ChooseFI appearance (Episode 23R and Episode 26R) started the idea because our first volunteer reached out to me after he heard me on the podcast. Since then I’ve published 10 posts, worth almost 30,000 words that generated tons of clicks, feedback and encouragement:

  • “John Smith”: Seven-figure net worth, but not quite ready for FIRE yet. Big ERN would recommend a few more years in the workforce!
  • “Captain Ron”: Early retirement on a sailboat. How much can they withdraw from their $3m portfolio to stay afloat (pun intended) in retirement?
  • “Rene”: No need to worry about the recent layoff: You are more than ready for early retirement!
  • “Mrs. Greece”: More than ready to retire due to large portfolio size and moderate living expenses, especially if the husband keeps working!
  • “Mrs. Wish I Could Surf”: Alternative investments (real estate hard money loans). Keep the mortgage or pay it off? Either way, more than ready to retire!
  • “Mr. Corporate”: Geographic Arbitrage by moving to a low-cost European country. Roth Conversions and zero tax liability!
  • “Ms. Almost FI”: Your name is a misnomer. You are ready to retire now even when self-funding substantial long-term care expenses in the future!
  • “Mr. Corporate Refugee”: How to deal with a large portion of the net worth tied up in a house in a high-cost-of-living area?
  • “Mrs. Wanderlust”: Substantial supplemental cash flows due to buying an RV and then selling it later.
  • “Mr. and Mrs. Shirts”: Ready to retire this year, but should Mr. Shirts work for another nine months for some additional big payday?

But, alas, all good things have to come to an end! I have decided to take a break from the case studies, at least for now. I might revive the series again later but for next few weeks and months, I will pursue other topics! Thanks to all volunteers who submitted their data. And thanks to all other folks who didn’t get their case studies published. I’m not even sure I properly responded to everyone whose request was denied. I think I may have some inquiries from October last year that I haven’t responded to. If you submitted a request for a case study and haven’t heard from me back, sorry, I’m just a bit disorganized!

Sooooo, ten case studies: what have I learned from them? Plenty, because that’s the topic for today’s post…

Read More »

Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Mr. and Mrs. Shirts”

Welcome to the 10th episode of our Case Study Series! Today’s case study is for Mr. and Mrs. Shirts. They run their own blog Stop Ironing Shirts and I encourage everyone to head over and check out their outstanding work. Mr. Shirts and his wife face a dilemma; they have already amassed a pretty impressive nest egg, probably large enough to retire later this year. But the temptation to work a little longer to cash in that next financial milestone around the corner (bonus, vesting date, etc.) is a pretty strong incentive to stay onboard for just a little bit longer. Otherwise known as the One More Year Syndrome. In fact, in the Shirt’s case, it’s only nine months (June 2018 vs. March 2019). So, what are the tradeoffs, what are the pros and cons of retiring in 2018 vs 2019? Let’s look at the details…

Read More »

Our Net Worth as of 12/31/2017

Happy New Year! Another quarter-end, I can’t believe how fast time flies! And we all know what that means, right? Net Worth updates across the Financial Independence blogosphere! For us, this is a special NW update because it’s the last one before we both give notice at work in two months! And the last NW update before our apartment goes on the market! In other words, this better looks good, otherwise, we might get cold feet, also known as One More Year Syndrome. Soooo, where do we stand financially? Here are the numbers…

Read More »