Trading like an Escape Artist: How I made money in October trading S&P Futures Options with 2x leverage

October was a scary month for stocks: the worst monthly S&P 500 return in seven years! And November is off to a volatile start as well! We haven’t even seen a real correction yet but apparently, the drop was bad enough for me to got inquiries from friends and former colleagues asking how I’m doing … Continue reading Trading like an Escape Artist: How I made money in October trading S&P Futures Options with 2x leverage

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Nervous about sky-high stock prices? Five ways to cope with “CAPE Fear”

Another month, another record close for the major stock indices on November 30. How long can this go on? Is this a bubble? The Shiller CAPE Ratio certainly looks “bubbly,” now that it’s solidly above 30, see the chart below. It’s almost as high as in September 1929, right before the crash. And significantly above the … Continue reading Nervous about sky-high stock prices? Five ways to cope with “CAPE Fear”

The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 18: Flexibility and the Mechanics of CAPE-Based Rules

Welcome back to the newest installment of the Safe Withdrawal Rate Series. To go back and start from the beginning, please check out Part 1 of the series with links to all the other parts as well. Today’s post is a follow-up on some of the items we discussed in the ChooseFI podcast a few … Continue reading The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 18: Flexibility and the Mechanics of CAPE-Based Rules

The end of CAPE Fear? What happens to the Shiller CAPE ratio when we roll out the weak 2008/09 earnings?

In last week’s post on dynamic withdrawal rates, one of the withdrawal rules we actually liked quite a bit was based on the Shiller CAPE ratio. One disadvantage of any such rule: The CAPE is at a high level by historical standards, 29.30 to be precise as of this morning (March 22, 2017). Today’s CAPE-based withdrawal … Continue reading The end of CAPE Fear? What happens to the Shiller CAPE ratio when we roll out the weak 2008/09 earnings?

A Different Way to Plan Retirement – Guest Post on “Monte Carlo” Simulations by “Gasem”

Today we have another guest post, this time by our long-time reader “Gasem.” I’m sure most of you who have looked through the comments section here and at a number of other blogs would have noticed his comments. They are always highly insightful. He’s also a prolific writer on his own blog MD on FIRE, … Continue reading A Different Way to Plan Retirement – Guest Post on “Monte Carlo” Simulations by “Gasem”

Does A 4% Withdrawal Rate Survive a 60-Year Retirement? (Guest Post by Dr. David Graham)

You might have noticed that I haven’t published any guest posts for a while. I even explicitly state on my contact page that I’m no longer interested in publishing any guest posts. But every once in a while you make an exception to the rule. David Graham, actually, Dr. David Graham (FIPhysician), has been on … Continue reading Does A 4% Withdrawal Rate Survive a 60-Year Retirement? (Guest Post by Dr. David Graham)

My thoughts on Small-Cap and Value Stocks

People have often asked me what I think about value and small-cap equity portfolios. So, this is a post I always wanted to write but kept postponing because I never knew how to best frame it. But now I have the perfect excuse to write it; last week, I listened to the ChooseFI podcast and … Continue reading My thoughts on Small-Cap and Value Stocks

How To “Lie” With Personal Finance

“Lies, damned lies and statistics” (Mark Twain) “Do not trust any statistic you did not fake yourself” (Winston Churchill) There is a classic book called “How to lie with Statistics” that I read many, many years ago (actually decades ago!) as a college student. If you’re ever looking for an inexpensive but fun and impactful … Continue reading How To “Lie” With Personal Finance

Where are they now? A Case Study Update with “Captain Ron”

From 2017 until early 2018 I ran a series of ten case studies for readers who volunteered to open their books and serve a real-world safe withdrawal rate guineapigs. The second case study in July 2017 was for Captain Ron (not his real name) who was planning to FIRE and enjoy early retirement with his … Continue reading Where are they now? A Case Study Update with “Captain Ron”

Passive income through option writing: Part 3

Back in 2016, I wrote a few posts on trading derivatives, especially options, to generate (mostly) passive income: Trading derivatives on the path to Financial Independence and Early Retirement Passive income through option writing: Part 1 Passive income through option writing: Part 2 I’m still running that same strategy but it definitely evolved quite a … Continue reading Passive income through option writing: Part 3