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January 2021 Trades

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NavyPack
Posts: 162
Topic starter
(@navypack)
Estimable Member
Joined: 1 year ago

* ERN - If you'd prefer, I can just make a holistic thread vice monthly.

Sold 6 Jan 3465 for $1.45 near the close. Underlying was trading around 3700 and delta of the option contract was about -0.03.  Hope a 235 point drop by Wednesday is unlikely, but lots happening by Wed close.

VIX was 27 and IV was around 40. Love IV > VIX.

Got greedy this morning and rolled my 4 Jan from 3630 to 3685 for 0.30 or $30/contact, which could have been a disaster!  Didn't check mid-day price, but at mid-day low of 3665 was probably a -2500 loss.  Bailed out, but still dumb.  Lesson is just trust the process and don't roll up the risk.

Thoughts?


 

39 Replies
earlyretirementnow.com
Posts: 273
(@earlyretirementnowcom)
Member
Joined: 6 years ago

Was a bit of a rollercoaster ride today. Early strikes were 3400, when the SP was >3700. Then strikes went down all the way to 3280. But the last ones I sold were at 3425, actually higher than the early-morning ones. Yeah, people still price in a lot of uncertainty due to the Tuesday Senate runoffs and the crazy COVID numbers. But I'm hopeful our strikes will hold.

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nobatmanjokes
Posts: 96
(@nobatmanjokes)
Trusted Member
Joined: 1 year ago

I ended up at 3400 as well but near the end of the day for $1.20. Good day to not bother checking in until the afternoon!

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NavyPack
Posts: 162
Topic starter
(@navypack)
Estimable Member
Joined: 1 year ago

Everybody seems to get better deals than me, but I keep posting for accountability and to help those that follow in the future.

Sold 8 Jan 3480 for $1.35 near the close. Underlying was trading around 3745 and delta of the option contract was about -3.5.

IV was certainly greater than ViX, but don't have numbers.

I live in Arlington, VA and I pray we find a way to heal the rift in the country!

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nobatmanjokes
Posts: 96
(@nobatmanjokes)
Trusted Member
Joined: 1 year ago

3430 for $1.40 about an hour after the vix spike for you-know-what.

Deals are total luck when VIX is elevated. I had way worse luck with my strikes and prices during the election vol spike. Of course still had all of the most important luck which is the puts all ended up worthless!

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