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Question from a Forum Member on the SWR toolbox

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Posts: 349
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[#25]

I got this Forum question as an email notification. But the message got lost somehow. But these were all excellent and important questions! So I repost the question and then my answers:

Please forgive my lack of education and intelligence, and my poor ability to find my own answers, even when those answers are clearly given and posted on this forum or the blog. I recognize many of them are.

Here is a copy of the link for the SWR Toolbox 2.0:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QGrMm6XSGWBVLI8I_DOAeJV5whoCnSdmaR8toQB2Jz8/edit%23gid%3D0&source=gmail&ust=1607010227821000&usg=AFQjCNGaOUwmEG7NO3XHLIIkCrNLLiMx3 Q"> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QGrMm6XSGWBVLI8I_DOAeJV5whoCnSdmaR8toQB2Jz8/edit#gid=0

Here is the page I took it from:https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/01/25/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-7-toolbox/&source=gmail&ust=1607010227821000&usg=AFQjCNF8y2DKby5hl6gXgXNjjxcJzwvRj Q"> https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/01/25/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-7-toolbox/

1: On line 27, is the final value target % inflation adjusted? If I set this value to 100% for say, 20 years, does success mean I retain the same number of dollars, or the same purchasing power?

2: I have a total stock market index fund which makes up 75% of my portfolio, rather than a S&P 500 index fund. Pretend that this hypothetical total market fund is made with 8% small cap and 6% value stocks. My impression is that I would put 75% in line 6, even though it says "large cap / S&P 500" and then put 8% and 6% in lines 12 and 13 respectively. I believe this because there are value stocks in the S&P 500 which would obviously be double counted, so I don't think I should be removing my percentage of small cap stocks from line 6.

3: According to my analytics tab, my portfolio has 16.3% small cap stocks, and 17.1% mid-cap stocks. Should I add both together for line 12, or should I ignore my mid-cap stocks and only use the value for legitimate small caps?

Thank you very much. I appreciate any help.

It's always CPI-adjusted. So it's purchasing power.

The total market is made up of exactly 50% value and 50% growth stocks, by definition. No further adjustment is necessary with regards to the HML/Value factor. 

You could simply ignore the small-cap stuff as a conservative estimate. Historically, S-C has outperformed but that has now ended. Unless you really believe that this trend will pick up again, you should do nothing for now.

If you truly believe the small-cap party will pick up again in the next 30 years, you can certainly assume that the 75% total market fund has a 10-15% exposure to small. You have an additional 16.3% small and maybe take half of the 17.1% to account for the mid-cap stocks.

Good luck!


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