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Latest posts:

The Effect of “One More Year” – SWR Series Part 42

How to Beat the Stock Market

What’s wrong with Target Date Funds?

What to make of that Q3 U.S. GDP number?

Can we raise our Safe Withdrawal Rate when inflation is low? – SWR Series Part 41

Should we preserve our capital and only consume the dividends in retirement? – SWR Series Part 40

Do we really have to lower our Safe Withdrawal Rate to 0.5% now?

My Thoughts on the “Passive Investing Bubble”

Passive income through option writing: Part 4 – Surviving a Bear Market!

How To “Lie” With Personal Finance – Part 2 (Homeownership Edition)

The Yield Illusion: How Can a High-Dividend Portfolio Exacerbate Sequence Risk? (SWR Series Part 29)

General:

• A short introduction
• Some of the things that keep us motivated to achieve (and maintain!) financial independence
• The ABC (and D through J) of Early Retirement
• Top 10 reasons for targeting more than 25 times annual spending
• Happy Birthday, USA
• The dangers of getting close to retirement: “Yeah, I’ll do that when I’m retired!”
• My Interview on the Physician on FIRE blog!
• Happy Thanksgiving!
• Grand Canyon Rim to Rim Hike
• Guest Post on Budgets are Sexy: My Top 7 Disagreements With Personal Finance Experts
• Our Interview on The Green Swan
• This place has extreme wealth inequality, yet everybody is happy!
• Our interview on “From Cents to Retirement”
• You want to know our savings rate? Which one?
• Our Net Worth (as of 3/31/2017)
• Five Unfortunate Facts about Student Debt in America
• The Other Student Loan Crisis: Half of Parent Cosigners Facing a Shaky Retirement
• Good Advice vs. Feel-Good Advice
• Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “John Smith”
• The ERN Family Early Retirement Capital Preservation Plan
• Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Captain Ron”
• Check out ChooseFI today for Big ERN’s first podcast appearance!
• Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Rene”
• Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for Mrs. “Wish I Could Surf”
• Our Net Worth as of 9/30/2017
• Guest Post: Why geographic arbitrage is so important to retire early and what you can do to about it
• Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Mr. Corporate”
• Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Ms. Almost FI”
• See that house over there? It’s an investment!
• Happy Thanksgiving 2017!
• Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Mr. Corporate Refugee”
• Meet Mr. Millionaire Math! (Plus Three Year-End Smart Money Moves)
• Our Net Worth as of 12/31/2017
• Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Mr. and Mrs. Shirts”
• Ten Lessons From Ten Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Studies
• Guest Post: Should you invest in Stocks or Bitcoin?
• Some of my Thoughts on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies
• My podcast appearance on Millionaires Unveiled
• Meet the ERN family!
• My best investment ever: Homeownership?!
• Does Big Ern really exist?
• Our Net Worth as of 3/31/2018
• The 2018 ERN Family World Tour
• Eight Lessons After Eight Weeks Of Early Retirement
• Did Suze Orman just pour cold water on the FIRE movement?
• We Are Homeowners Again!
• Happy FIRE-versary! Reflections after one year of early retirement
• Some Random Thoughts on the State of the World
• The Ultimate Tax Hack: We Are Moving To Monaco! (No, we’re not! This was an April Fools Prank!)

Asset Allocation:

• Our most recent Asset Allocation 3/2016
• Some really bad investment ideas to avoid. If it’s recommended on TV, it’s probably a bad idea!
• List of index ETFs and Mutual Funds
• Early Retirement Math 101
• Our $0.00 emergency fund strategy
• When bonds are riskier than stocks
• How to create a no-limit Synthetic Roth IRA in a taxable account
• Saving for a House Down Payment
• The ultimate retirement account comparison in one single Google Sheet
• Gold vs. Paper Money: A Rant
• Lower risk through leverage
• Why an emergency fund is a bad idea in one single chart
• Beat Behavioral Bias: Mental Accounting
• The Great Bond Diversification Myth
• Trading derivatives on the path to Financial Independence and Early Retirement
• Top 10 reasons for having an emergency fund – debunked (Part 1)
• Top 10 reasons for having an emergency fund – debunked (Part 2)
• We just went from millionaire to dead-broke with one simple accounting maneuver
• Passive income through option writing: Part 1
• Passive income through option writing: Part 2
• Shorting an inverse ETF? A bad idea! (Or: Why “Beta-Slippage” isn’t alpha)
• Cash Management in Early Retirement
• Why would anyone have a mortgage and a bond portfolio?
• Seven reasons in defense of debt and leverage: Yes, you CAN have too little of a bad thing!
• An addition to the ERN family portfolio: Preferred Stocks
• Happy Birthday, Bull Market!
• The end of CAPE Fear? What happens to the Shiller CAPE ratio when we roll out the weak 2008/09 earnings?
• Have bonds lost their diversification potential?
• The scariest week for the stock market is also scary profitable!
• How to invest a windfall: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging?
• We are so skewed!
• Active Investing: Opportunity vs. Futility
• U.S. Equity Returns: History and Big ERN’s 10-Year Forecast
• How useful is international diversification?
• This fund returned over 100% year-to-date. I’m still not buying it!
• The Shockingly Simple/Complicated/Random Math Behind Saving For Early Retirement
• Nervous about sky-high stock prices? Five ways to cope with “CAPE Fear”
• How much of a Random Walk is the Stock Market?
• Joined at the hip: The Macroeconomy and the Stock Market
• Market Timing and Risk Management, Part 1 – Macroeconomics
• Inflation Risk for Early Retirees – Part 2
• Guest Post: Farmland Is The New Gold
• My best investment ever: Homeownership?!
• Inflation Risk for Early Retirees – Part 4: Hedging
• How crazy is it to invest an emergency fund in stocks?
• Market Timing and Risk Management, Part 2 – Momentum
• A dog, a homework and a reader question about Robo Advisors
• Here’s an idea for a new ETF
• Good and bad reasons to invest in individual stocks rather than index funds
• A Reader Case Study: Whole Life Insurance
• The Ten Commandments of Whole Life Insurance
• So what, we retired at the peak of the bull market? Here are seven reasons why we’re not yet worried…
• Trading like an Escape Artist: How I made money in October trading S&P Futures Options with 2x leverage
• The OptionSellers.com debacle: How to blow up your portfolio in five easy steps
• Will FIRE turn into “Fake Independence Rapidly Evaporating?” Relax! We’re going to be fine, despite the recent stock market volatility!
• How can a drop in the stock market possibly be good for investors?
• Yield Curve Inversion: Eight Reasons Why I’m Not Worried Yet
• A Bond/CD Ladder Toolkit
• How To “Lie” With Personal Finance
• My thoughts on Small-Cap and Value Stocks
• Does A 4% Withdrawal Rate Survive a 60-Year Retirement? (Guest Post by Dr. David Graham)
• A Different Way to Plan Retirement – Guest Post on “Monte Carlo” Simulations by “Gasem”
• Can a Rising Equity Glidepath Save the 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate Over a 60 Year Retirement? (Guest Post by Dr. David Graham)
• Another Option Strategy Failure: Why it’s “Nickels in Front of a Steamroller” and not “Benjamins in Front of a Baby Stroller!”
• My thoughts on the “Upcoming Recession”
• Stuck With a High-Expense-Ratio Fund? Here’s a Google Sheet to Weigh the Pros and Cons of Dumping that “Stinker” in Your Portfolio!
• How To “Lie” With Personal Finance – Part 2 (Homeownership Edition)
• Who’s Afraid of a Bear Market?
• Feeling scared already? It’s not even a Bear Market yet!
• It’s a Bear Market now, all right! But what kind of bear will it be?
• Some Financial Lessons from the First Quarter of 2020 (incl. Jack Bogle’s Revenge)
• COVID-19: Some Empirical Observations and Reasons for Optimism
• Three Equity Investing Styles that did OK in 2020
• Are we in another Bull Market now?
• My Thoughts on the “Passive Investing Bubble”
• The Shortest Recession Ever? My Thoughts on the State of the Economy
• Do we really have to lower our Safe Withdrawal Rate to 0.5% now?
• Is an Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) Worth the Risk?
• Is an Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) better than a Retirement Account?
• What to make of that Q3 U.S. GDP number?
• What’s wrong with Target Date Funds?
• How to Beat the Stock Market

Financial Planners and Robo-advisers:

• Why we don’t trust financial planners
• Be your own zero-cost homebrew Robo-adviser
• Why we don’t use Robo-advisers
• We just saved $42,000 by not switching to Betterment
• A dog, a homework, and a reader question about Robo Advisors

Withdrawal Rates:

• The Safe Withdrawal Rate Series. I recommend you check out the new intro page first before going through all parts: The Safe Withdrawal Rate Series – A Guide for First-Time Readers 
• All posts in chronological order:
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 1: Introduction
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 2: Capital Preservation vs. Capital Depletion
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 3: Equity Valuation
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 4: Social Security and Pensions
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 5: Cost-of-Living Adjustments
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 6: A 2000-2016 case study (or: Welcome to the Potemkin Retirement Village)
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 7: A Google Sheets Toolbox
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 8: Technical Appendix
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 9: Are Guyton-Klinger Rules Overrated?
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 10: Debunking Guyton-Klinger Some More
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 11: Six Criteria to Grade Withdrawal Rules
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 12: Six reasons to be suspicious about the “Cash Cushion”
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 13: Dynamic Stock-Bond Allocation through Prime Harvesting
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 14: Sequence of Return Risk
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 15: More Thoughts on Sequence of Return Risk
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 16: Early Retirement in a Low-Return World (and why we don’t worry about Jack Bogle’s return prediction)
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 17: More on Social Security and Pensions (and why we should call the 4% Rule the “4% Rule of Thumb”)
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 18: Flexibility and the Mechanics of CAPE-Based Rules
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 19: Equity Glidepaths in Retirement
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 20: More Thoughts on Equity Glidepaths
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 21: Why we will not have a mortgage in early retirement
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 22: Can the “Simple Math” make retirement more difficult?
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 23: Flexibility and its Limitations
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
  • The Ultimate Guide to Safe Withdrawal Rates – Part 25: More Flexibility Myths
  • Ten things the “Makers” of the 4% Rule don’t want you to know (Part 26)
  • Why is Retirement Harder than Saving for Retirement? (SWR Series Part 27)
  • An Updated Google Sheet DIY Withdrawal Rate Toolbox (SWR Series Part 28)
  • The Yield Illusion: How Can a High-Dividend Portfolio Exacerbate Sequence Risk? (SWR Series Part 29)
  • The Yield Illusion Follow-Up (SWR Series Part 30)
  • The Yield Illusion (or Delusion?): Another Follow-Up! (SWR Series Part 31)
  • You are a Pension Fund of One (or Two) – SWR Series Part 32
  • How to Calculate Your Safe Withdrawal Rate without using Simulations – SWR Series Part 33
  • Using Gold as a Hedge against Sequence Risk – SWR Series Part 34
  • Asset Location: Do Bonds Really Belong in Retirement Accounts? – SWR Series Part 35
  • Safe Withdrawal Math with Real Estate Investments – SWR Series Part 36
  • Dealing with a Bear Market in Retirement – SWR Series Part 37
  • When Can We Stop Worrying about Sequence Risk? – SWR Series Part 38
  • How often should we rebalance our portfolio? – SWR Series Part 39
  • Should we preserve our capital and only consume the dividends in retirement? – SWR Series Part 40
  • Can we raise our Safe Withdrawal Rate when inflation is low? – SWR Series Part 41
  • The Effect of “One More Year” – SWR Series Part 42
• Case Studies:
  • Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “John Smith”: Seven-figure net worth, but not quite ready for FIRE yet. Big ERN would recommend a few more years in the workforce!
  • Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Captain Ron”: Early retirement on a sailboat. How much can they withdraw from their $3m portfolio to stay afloat (pun) in retirement?
  • Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Rene”: No need to worry about the recent layoff: You are more than ready for early retirement!
  • Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Mrs. Greece”: More than ready to retire due to large portfolio size and moderate living expenses, especially if the husband keeps working!
  • Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Mrs. Wish I Could Surf”: Alternative investments (real estate hard money loans). Keep the mortgage or pay it off? Either way, more than ready to retire!
  • Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Mr. Corporate”: Geographic Arbitrage by moving to a low-cost European country. Roth Conversions and zero tax liability!
  • Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Ms. Almost FI”: Your name is a misnomer. You are ready to retire now even when self-funding substantial long-term care expenses in the future!
  • Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Mr. Corporate Refugee”: How to deal with a large portion of the net worth tied up in a house in a high-cost-of-living area.
  • Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Mrs. Wanderlust”: Substantial supplemental cash flows due to buying an RV and then selling it later.
  • Ask Big Ern: A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for “Mr. and Mrs. Shirts”: Ready to retire this year, but should Mr. Shirts work for another nine months for some additional big payday?
  • Wrapup and summary of the 10 case studies: Ten Lessons From Ten Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Studies
  • Where are they now? A Case Study Update with “Captain Ron”
  • A Safe Withdrawal Rate Case Study for Becky and Stephen – also see ChooseFI podcast episode 152R where I talk with Jonathan and Brad about this case study!
• Older research (pre-SWR-Series):
  • Pros and cons of different withdrawal rules
  • The 4% Rule is not as good as we hoped:
    • Part 1 – equity expected returns
    • Part 2 – bond expected returns
    • Part 3 – the small sample problem in historical simulations
  • Cash Management in Early Retirement

Real Estate:

• Real Estate: Buy or Rent? Includes: The hidden tax benefits of renting (seriously!)
• Why we’re not optimistic about REITs
• Why would anyone have a mortgage and a bond portfolio?
• Housing Choices in Early Retirement: Rent vs. Own
• See that house over there? It’s an investment!
• My best investment ever: Homeownership?!
• We Are Homeowners Again!
• How To “Lie” With Personal Finance – Part 2 (Homeownership Edition)
• Safe Withdrawal Math with Real Estate Investments – SWR Series Part 36

Taxes:

• That sneaky 30% Federal Income Tax Bracket
• Tax Loss Harvesting: what is it and how large is the expected benefit?
• We just saved $42,000 by not switching to Betterment
• Good and Bad Reasons to Love the Mortgage Interest Deduction
• Here’s an idea for a new ETF
• Stuck With a High-Expense-Ratio Fund? Here’s a Google Sheet to Weigh the Pros and Cons of Dumping that “Stinker” in Your Portfolio!
• Taxation of Social Security: The Tax Torpedo & Roth Conversion Tightrope
• How much can we earn in retirement without paying federal income taxes?

Derivatives:

• How to create a no-limit Synthetic Roth IRA in a taxable account
• Trading derivatives on the path to Financial Independence and Early Retirement
• Passive income through option writing: Part 1
• Passive income through option writing: Part 2
• Our Interview on the Amber Tree Leaves Blog
• Trading like an Escape Artist: How I made money in October trading S&P Futures Options with 2x leverage
• The OptionSellers.com debacle: How to blow up your portfolio in five easy steps
• Passive income through option writing: Part 3
• Another Option Strategy Failure: Why it’s “Nickels in Front of a Steamroller” and not “Benjamins in Front of a Baby Stroller!”
• Passive income through option writing: Part 4 – Surviving a Bear Market!
• Passive income through option writing: Part 5 – A 2018-2020 backtest: Guest Post by “Spintwig” (plus a quick update on last week’s volatility)