Is Social Security a Ponzi Scheme?

June 5, 2026 – Almost to the day, today, eight years ago, was my last day at work. One thing I always looked forward to in retirement was never having to pay those dreaded payroll taxes again. Alas, eight years into retirement, I’ve picked up a few side gigs to stay involved and now run my own small financial advisory business. Not only do I pay Social Security and Medicare taxes again, but I now pay the full 12.4% Social Security and 2.9% Medicare taxes, i.e., the employee and employer portions out of my pocket. Ouch! I had hoped I would never have to put money into that stupid Social Security Ponzi Scheme again. Oh, wait, what did I just say? I must have heard this somewhere, probably from Elon Musk on Joe Rogan’s show. He probably said this mostly for the shock value without thinking too much about the financial nuances.

Nevertheless, the Ponzi Scheme comparison got me thinking: While Social Security is certainly not a literal Ponzi Scheme, where some scam artist runs off with the money, and the investors lose all their funds, is Social Security a Ponzi Scheme, at least to a degree? Are the ways in which Social Security differs from a Ponzi Scheme really only distinctions without a difference? How much better could I have done if I had invested my personal payroll contributions into the stock market or some other financial asset portfolio? All interesting questions! Let’s take a look…

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Can an Oil Price Shock Derail the US Economy?

April 15, 2026 – Welcome back to another post. This time, I want to do another economic update, which many readers seem to enjoy. Today’s topic is whether the recent oil price shock, driven by Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, poses a threat to the U.S. economy. That risk is certainly pushed by the news and also reposted by some folks in the personal finance sphere. For example, the recent post on The Motley Fool, claiming their Moody’s AI model (which has never been wrong for 80 years), almost certainly predicts a recession over the next 12 months. What to make of that? After all, the Fool/Moody’s model is AI, so it must be right, right? They wouldn’t publish any clickbait, right? Well, not so fast! There are many reasons to feel much more relaxed about the recent oil price spike. Let’s take a look…

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Market Musings: Recession Fears and the Trade War – Is this the end of FIRE?

May 9, 2025 – By popular demand, and because it’s been a while since I wrote my last such post, here are a few thoughts on the current market conditions, especially the economic and financial uncertainty. Some of the issues I like to cover:

  • Is there a recession around the corner?
  • What’s my inflation and Federal Reserve policy outlook?
  • What are my views on the Trade War?
  • With all this financial volatility, is the FIRE movement finally finished?

That’s a lot to cover, so let’s get started…

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