April 15, 2026 – Welcome back to another post. This time, I want to do another economic update, which many readers seem to enjoy. Today’s topic is whether the recent oil price shock, driven by Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, poses a threat to the U.S. economy. That risk is certainly pushed by the news and also reposted by some folks in the personal finance sphere. For example, the recent post on The Motley Fool, claiming their Moody’s AI model (which has never been wrong for 80 years), almost certainly predicts a recession over the next 12 months. What to make of that? After all, the Fool/Moody’s model is AI, so it must be right, right? They wouldn’t publish any clickbait, right? Well, not so fast! There are many reasons to feel much more relaxed about the recent oil price spike. Let’s take a look…
Continue reading “Can an Oil Price Shock Derail the US Economy?”Category: Economics
Market Musings: Recession Fears and the Trade War – Is this the end of FIRE?
May 9, 2025 – By popular demand, and because it’s been a while since I wrote my last such post, here are a few thoughts on the current market conditions, especially the economic and financial uncertainty. Some of the issues I like to cover:
- Is there a recession around the corner?
- What’s my inflation and Federal Reserve policy outlook?
- What are my views on the Trade War?
- With all this financial volatility, is the FIRE movement finally finished?
That’s a lot to cover, so let’s get started…
Continue reading “Market Musings: Recession Fears and the Trade War – Is this the end of FIRE?”