The stock market is still well below its February all-time-high, but it’s holding up remarkably well considering how poorly the economy is doing right now:
20+ million jobs lost according to the BLS payroll employment data,
30+ million jobs lost according to the sum of weekly unemployment claims since March,
-4.8% GDP growth in the first quarter (annualized rate) and possibly a 10% drop quarter-on-quarter in Q3, which would be reported as a 34% drop annualized!
And a whole host of other economic indicators that look so bad, you’d have to go back to the Great Depression to find similar readings
Actually, “holding up” is a bit of an understatement when you look at the stock market as of the Friday, May 8 close:
The S&P 500 TR index rallied 31% since the March 23 low!
We’ve recovered more than half of the drop peak to trough!
Since April 8, we’re no longer 20% below the recent all-time-high, which is often quoted as the cutoff for the Bear Market!
Does that mean the Bear market is over now? I certainly hope so! Whether the Bear Market is over and a new Bull Market might have started already obviously depends on the definition of Bull vs. Bear. What is that definition of Bull vs. Bear anyway? Different people have different definitions, some more sensible than others. And it gets more complicated: even if we do agree on a sensible definition, there could still be uncertainty over what’s the state of the market right now because some criteria cannot designate the state of the world in real-time but only after the fact. There’s a confirmation lag! So, we could be in a sort of a bull/bear-limbo state right now! How is that possible???
So many questions! Let’s take a look at how I think about Bull vs. Bear…
Simple (indexing) beats complicated active investing
Well, after unloading on some of the fancy complicated investing styles, I just like to point out the select few of them that indeed performed relatively well in 2020. At least better than the index. So, for the record, I’d also like to write about three examples where…
Complicated beats simple index investing
And most importantly, I’m not pulling some “Monday Morning Quarterback” nonsense telling you that if you could have sold your airline stocks in February and replaced them with stocks for video conferencing makers you could have done really well. Well, duh, very few people other than U.S. Senators had that kind of inside information back in February! Rather, I want to write about some of the deviations from simple indexing that were mentioned here on the blog in my posts and/or in the comments. Before the crisis!
Welcome back to a new post! I hope you all had a happy and safe Easter Weekend! Last week I published a post wondering about how the stock market can be down “only” about 20% in the first quarter when we’re facing a deadly virus, a wide-ranging shutdown of the economy and no clear idea when we can reopen again. We are expecting a deep recession and macro data significantly worse than during the Global Financial Crisis.
If you listen to the media talking heads it’s all doom and gloom, so why is the stock market holding up so well? Why isn’t the stock market down 55% as in 2009 or even 80% as in 1932? Does the stock market “know” something that even your trusted news anchor doesn’t realize yet?
I updated some of the charts I posted a few weeks ago and gathered some additional data as well. And it all looks much better than the breathless and scary headlines in the media. Maybe that’s why the stock market looks relatively solid – under the circumstances, at least.
Wow, we made it through the first quarter of 2020. Seemed like an eternity! Remember January 2020? Suleimani Drone strike and an almost-war with Iran? Australian Wildfires? February? The Super Bowl, the impeachment trial? Even early March: Super Tuesday (March 3). It all feels like years ago! All those daily 100-point S&P 500 and 1,000-point Dow Jones moves took a toll. They make you age in dog years, I guess!
Are you worried about how the current bear market will affect your financial situation? I had the pleasure of chatting with Liam Austin of Entrepreneurs HQ about the FIRE community and what the current market conditions mean for folks in the FIRE movement.
I’ll be sharing my thoughts at the Million Dollar FIRE Summit (Special Market Crash Edition), on Thursday, April 9. It’s a free, virtual event, meaning you can tune in from anywhere. So, if you like to hear from me and four other FIRE/Personal Finance bloggers who I really like:
Despite the postponement of the deadline this year, April is still tax season for us! Oh, how much I dread this part of the year! And it’s not even the paperwork! If I could do twice the paperwork to cut my taxes in half, I’d gladly do so. So, certainly, for me, the problem is not the filing of my taxes! The discomfort of tax season is 100% due to paying income taxes. Sure, we moved to Washington State to eliminate the state income tax – a big plus compared to California – but that still leaves that pesky federal tax. Last year, we still ended up in the 22% federal tax bracket for ordinary income and 15% for long-term capital gains and qualified dividends. I still don’t the final, final tally yet but it looks like our total federal tax bill will be about $23,000. That hurts! And it hurts more having to pay taxes for the blockbuster year 2019, right around the time the market is melting down this year!
So we developed the ultimate tax hack! Move to a location without any(!!!) income taxes! At all! That location is Monaco, a tiny sovereign nation on the Mediterranean coast surrounded by Southern France. It has no income tax, no capital gains tax and no property tax, how awesome is that?
We did a reconnaissance visit to the Cote d’Azur last year, including Monaco, and we absolutely fell in love with the place! I mean, where else in the world can you watch a Formula One race looking out of your apartment window?
It’s sunny and warm year-round and the food and wine are outstanding.
Wow, I’m in a writing mood these days. A second post this week! Here are a few random thoughts about the current situation. All the things on my mind right now that might be too short to put into a separate blog. Since you’re likely all sitting at home feeling bored, I thought you might enjoy this… Continue reading “Some Random Thoughts on the State of the World”→
In my post last week, I looked at how the 2020 Bear Market will impact folks saving for (early) retirement. But I deferred my recommendations on how current retirees will optimally adjust to the new realities. So, here we go, a new installment of the Safe Withdrawal Series, now 37 posts strong!
Nothing I write here today should be shocking news to people who have read the other 36 parts, but having it all summarized in one place plus some new simulations and perspectives is certainly a worthwhile exercise. In a nutshell, I argue that if you’ve done your homework before you retired, not even a bear market, not even this bear market will derail your retirement. Depending on what approach people chose, some retirees might even increase their spending target now.
Well, it is a Bear Market as of this week! We dipped well below the -20% line on March 12 due to the awful 10% meltdown that day. But we also recovered very nicely on Friday the 13th, of all days!!! I’m putting together some notes about my thoughts. To be published on Wednesday, March 18. Stay tuned! Good luck everybody! Stay invested! 🙂
Original Post (3/4/2020)
Volatility is back! Did it feel a little bit like a bear market last week? Actually, that wasn’t even a bear market, only a correction so far. Hence the title picture with the Koala “Bear,” which is not a bear at all but a marsupial. But it still felt like a mini-bear-market, didn’t it?
So, I thought it’s a good time to write a response to some of the questions I’ve been getting over the last few days:
How bad is this event compared to other corrections? How long will this last?
Should I sell my stocks now?
Is this a good buying opportunity?
How did some of the “exotic” investment styles fare during this volatile time (Yield Shield, Merriman’s Small-Cap Value)?
What does this all mean for my retirement plans?
Did your leveraged option writing strategy blow up already?