April 15, 2026 – Welcome back to another post. This time, I want to do another economic update, which many readers seem to enjoy. Today’s topic is whether the recent oil price shock, driven by Middle East geopolitical uncertainty, poses a threat to the U.S. economy. That risk is certainly pushed by the news and also reposted by some folks in the personal finance sphere. For example, the recent post on The Motley Fool, claiming their Moody’s AI model (which has never been wrong for 80 years), almost certainly predicts a recession over the next 12 months. What to make of that? After all, the Fool/Moody’s model is AI, so it must be right, right? They wouldn’t publish any clickbait, right? Well, not so fast! There are many reasons to feel much more relaxed about the recent oil price spike. Let’s take a look…
Continue reading “Can an Oil Price Shock Derail the US Economy?”Tag: Forecasting
Who’s afraid of a housing crash?
November 16, 2022 – After the big jump in the stock market last week, everybody’s worries should be over, right? Well, maybe not. Real estate looks a bit shaky now! Prices have come down just a notch, but is there more to follow? Are the wheels coming off? Is the market going to crash? What’s the impact of the much higher mortgage interest rates? Are we going to see a replay of the 2008 housing crash? How did interest hikes impact the housing market back in the 1970s and 80s?
Lots of interesting questions! Let’s take a look…
Continue reading “Who’s afraid of a housing crash?”