Update (12/31/2022):
It seems that new users have trouble registering for the forum. The confirmation email never shows up. I’ve decided to phase out this forum and transition over to a new forum plugin. The new location is here:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/forum-3/
Policies – please read!
- Everyone can read posts, but to start a new topic or add a reply you’d need to register. To create an ID, please verify your email address. You will get a link at that email address and you can then pick a password.
- Be courteous to others. Treat others like you like to be treated. Discuss the issues. No ad-hominem attacks!
- It’s OK to include external links if they are relevant. But please avoid spamming! Please no affiliate links.
- Before starting a new topic, please check if that question/topic has been discussed before already and add to that discussion instead of starting a new topic.
- If you’ve written a cool blog post that you want to share with others please post this in the “Self-Promo” category only!
- Please read the usual Disclaimers and the Privacy Policy!
- The forum policies may be amended in the future!
@stocksalt9934, my comments for you mostly relate to the planned glidepath.
first, unless I’ve missed something, the glidepath approach ERN outlines in Parts 19 and 20 is largely orthogonal to the CAPE-based withdrawal approach.
whether or not you decide to merge the two, IMO it is particularly risky to hold at 100%, or even 90% equities after 10 years of a glidepath, unless stocks are still down 40% from their highs.
So unless your goal is have the largest possible final value for legacy bequests, unless the market is down big, I strongly suggest resetting your equity allocation to someone in. 70%-80% range. Otherwise you are still exposing yourself to SORR.
Of course, if your portfolio after 10 years is high enough that your effective WR % is less than 2.75% and you have no plans or interest in increasing your withdrawal amount, it can still work to keep 100% equities. But I don’t think that’s what most people are either comfortable with or interested in doing.