Update (12/31/2022):
It seems that new users have trouble registering for the forum. The confirmation email never shows up. I’ve decided to phase out this forum and transition over to a new forum plugin. The new location is here:
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Last seen: May 29, 2023
@earlyretirementnowcom Well, I only deployed about 10% of my intended AA before bond yields went back down. The whole DCA-into-8%-bonds thing isn't go...
Annuity yields are now quoted at 6.3% for the demographic described above. Interestingly, the quoted rates have gone the opposite direction as long-te...
I'm wary of the various promoters going around offering supposedly counter-correlated asset classes wrapped up in a nice little package with a high ex...
Update / necropost: I decided to start buying bonds last week. I'm staying away from financials for now, but still picking up 7.5% to 8% long-durati...
@navypack I mean that if mortgages are yielding 7.7%, then lots of IG corporate debt and preferred stock will also be yielding in the 7-8% range. Also...
@figuy1 The current forecast on one site I follow is for 7.7% mortgages by May. This whole dynamic keeps happening in 2022, where what used to be co...
@earlyretirementnowcom This was the correct call!
@earlyretirementnowcom So far, the markets are rising and the futures markets are firming up on a 0.75% hike. These would seem to be contradictory mov...
@earlyretirementnowcom recent Fed comments seem aimed at traders with the consensus assumption that rates will rise to 4% or less, hold that level, an...
It honestly sounds sketchy as hell. I don't have an answer but I have some questions you should ask: Why can't these folks borrow from banks, hedge ...
@figuy1 Yea I am reluctant to put together a logical case for what the Fed SHOULD do and place a big bet on that, because obviously the Fed doesn't al...
The takedown of Stocks for the Long Run is astounding, but I wonder if what people were buying in the early 1800's was even remotely similar to what w...
I like the idea of contracts on the 2y note, but don’t like the idea of using futures due to the massive downside potential. These would also be a lea...