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Last seen: Aug 29, 2026
I have no experience with this kind of investment. I invest in Private Equity real estate where I am part of the equity holders. That's also risky but...
@figuy1 I think this sentiment is exactly why we have the difference in the two paths: the FOMC with the higher path and the FFF lower. But be care...
This upcoming week (9/12-9/16) will be again the week prior to the FOMC meeting (9/20-9/21). Expect higher volatility! And potentially people losing t...
@ohadost I had some small losses on some of the intra-day puts I sold in the morning. In exchange, I sell the nest-day puts at a slightly smaller prem...
I don't trust the early 1800s stock data that much. But post-1871, there's a clear pattern: equities outperform in the long run, while bonds can have ...
Good point. I agree with that assessment. The path for the FFR is now way below the June FOMC forecast. If anything, the September FOMC forecast will ...
Thanks for the links. At a sub-3% yield in the 10y Treasury, I'll still take my luck with stocks, though! Thanks for the link to the Grossman-Stig...
@mpaziran Good question. I don't have an IT professional to look into this, though. Sorry!
@navypack 2 2Q negative GDP growth rule is not the correct definition. Business cycle timing is done using monthly series for employment, industrial p...
@ohadost Correct. It's a tradeoff. Because you're facing more risk with higher Delta puts you also sell fewer. So, the simple comparison of different ...
The market stayed amazingly firm, considering the uncertainty from the FOMC meeting next week (July 26+27). I remember many instances where the market...
@ohadost Stayed pretty resilient. Let's hope it stays that way...
@ohadost I had a similar close call. Sold the next-day contracts too early. But everything worked out well...
@john If my usual premium is $0.70 for the 1DTE trade, I target anything between 0.30 to 0.40 for an intra-day short put. I would put the trade on abo...
You might have noticed the really juicy premiums for Wednesday, July 13. Caution: it's the CPI inflation release date. We might see a repeat of the Ju...