Tag: bonds

How to “Lie” with Personal Finance – Part 3: Diversification

December 10, 2025 – Welcome to another post on the ERN blog. This is the third installment in the “How to Lie with Personal Finance” series (please also check out Parts 1 and 2). As always, this is not an instruction manual for deception, but precisely the opposite: it points out the misunderstandings circulating in personal finance. Think of it as an homage to the classic book “How to Lie with Statistics.” On the program today are the lies and misunderstandings surrounding diversification. Don’t get me wrong, I worked in finance, math, and statistics long enough to appreciate the beauty of diversification. But diversification seems to be one of the more misunderstood and misrepresented concepts in the personal finance world. I want to highlight some of those misunderstandings in today’s post.

Let’s get started…

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The 50-year mortgage is not as bad as we’ve been told!

November 19, 2025 – Recently, there has been a lot of chatter about a policy proposal: the 50-Year Mortgage. The proposal received significant pushback from all corners of society. Almost the entire political spectrum agreed that this was a bad idea. It’s rare these days that everyone agrees on something. So, I’ve been sitting back and watching the public outrage unfold. Oh, how terrible and irresponsible this is! You’re paying too much in interest over the life of the loan. You’re paying more in interest than the total value of the loan. You’ll still have a mortgage when you’re 90! Instead of passing wealth to your heirs, you only pass on a mortgage. The horror! For the record, I’m not a big fan of a 50-year mortgage. However, most reasons presented are not particularly convincing. Let’s take a look…

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Can we increase the Safe Withdrawal Rate with Momentum/Trend-Following? – SWR Series Part 63

November 12, 2025 – Hello, readers! Welcome to another installment of the Safe Withdrawal Rate Series. Please see this landing page for an introduction to the Series and a summary of all the other parts so far. After a long hiatus from writing due to my busy travel schedule during the summer and lots of other commitments, I’ve found my groove again and put together something that has been on my mind for many years: Is there an asset allocation strategy that could have improved historical safe withdrawal rates? Specifically, could we devise an asset allocation strategy that shifts weights between different asset classes in a way to improve investment results? Of course, that’s easier said than done, but there are some interesting ideas out there. One such approach is to tactically shift asset class weights based on asset return momentum. Some people also refer to this flavor as “Trend-Following.” If you want to sound really techy and fancy, you’d also call this “Tactical Asset Allocation” (TAA), “Managed Futures,” or “Commodity Trading Advisers” (CTA) strategies; however, these three terms often encompass many other dynamic asset allocation strategies, not just momentum.

In any case, maybe a momentum strategy can help us avoid some of the worst historical asset market disasters if we could sell equities early enough during a bear market. How much Sequence Risk could we eliminate? By how much can we raise our safe withdrawal rate if we could have reliably avoided some of the worst historical asset market disasters? Let’s take a look..

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Can we increase the Safe Withdrawal Rate with Small-Cap Value Stocks? – SWR Series Part 62

June 2, 2025 – Welcome to another installment in my Safe Withdrawal Series, please check the landing page for all posts so far. Today’s topic is about Small-Cap Value (SCV) stocks and whether they should have a prominent role in retirement portfolios. Some financial experts recommend adding Small-Cap Value to your retirement portfolio, which will miraculously and automatically increase your safe withdrawal rate from 4% to 5% or even 5.5%.

In today’s post, I first would like to present some simulations using historical data. Those simulation results look pretty impressive. Thus, investors in 1926 who had somehow been aware of the Fama-French research, published almost 70 years later (maybe through time travel!?), could have done remarkably well.

Of course, if you are familiar with my blog, you will know that I am skeptical of SCV. I’ve written two posts, one in 2019 and one last year, where I outline my main concern: the Small-Cap Value engine that generated extra returns worth several percentage points between 1926 and about 2006 started sputtering about twenty years ago, and it’s unlikely that now when everybody is aware of SCV, we will repeat those impressive investing results so easily. Thus, I also want to provide some simulations that factor in more realistic small stock and value premia going forward. Alas, once we scale back those factors’ return expectations, your retirement portfolio will have very little to gain from small-cap value stocks.

Let’s take a look…

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Options Trading Series: Part 13 – Year 2024 Review

January 14, 2025 – Happy New Year, everybody! I hope you had a quiet, relaxing Christmas season and a great start to the New Year. As I’ve done in prior years, I want to update you on my options trading strategy: How was the performance in CY 2024? Are there any strategy changes? How did I deal with the volatility in August and December? I also want to share some general thoughts and observations to rationalize the long-term profitability of my options strategy.

Let’s get started…

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Safety First – SWR Series Part 61

May 16, 2024 – Welcome to another Safe Withdrawal Rate Series installment. Please see the landing page of the series for a guide to all parts so far. In Part 60, dealing with the “Die With Zero” idea, I mentioned working on an upcoming post about the “Safety First” approach, and I finally got around to writing that post. What is Safety First? It involves using asset allocations different from those in the Trinity Study or my SWR Toolbox (see Part 28). For example, we could use Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a default-free and CPI-hedged investment option. However, TIPS are no hedge against longevity risk. An annuity hedges against longevity risk; though the most common annuity option, a single premium immediate annuity (SPIA), is usually not CPI-adjusted. Also, for the longest time, low interest rates rendered the Safety First approach all but useless because neither TIPS ladders nor annuities generated enough income for a comfortable retirement. You would have been better off taking your chances with the volatility of a 60/40 portfolio.

In other words, there is no free lunch. You don’t get peace of mind for free. Rather, you likely pay a steep price for that safety by giving up most, if not all, of your portfolio upside and/or bequest potential. However, since interest rates started rising again in 2022, the entire fixed-income interest rate landscape looks more attractive now. Could this be the time to reconsider Safety First? Let’s take a look…

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Looking for high-yield CDs? Consider an Option “Box Spread” as a tax-advantaged alternative!

April 17, 2024 – People sometimes ask me for a good and safe place to “park” their money for a short period. CDs, high-yield savings, and money market accounts would be the obvious answers. When looking for safe, short-term investments, options are probably the last thing on your mind. Options have the aura of complicated and highly speculative investments. However, sophisticated investors can structure options trades to make them (almost) as safe as CDs but with more flexibility and higher after-tax income, thanks to a Box Spread trade.

You can implement this trade by hand, and I will go through the mechanics. You can also buy an ETF, though with some small drawbacks. Let’s take a look…

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Trading Options: A Primer (Options Series Part 11)

March 7, 2024 – My claim to fame in the personal finance and early retirement community is my Safe Withdrawal Rate Series, which has now grown to 60 parts. But I also have another passion: trading options to generate extra income in retirement. By popular demand, I like to update everyone on how my strategy has evolved since my last update in early 2023. Before I do that, though, I also want to reemphasize the rationale for my options trading strategy: Why does it work? How does it fit into a portfolio, both during accumulation and now in retirement? How do we dispel some of the common objections and misunderstandings? I think of it as an options trading primer.

Let’s take a look…

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100% Stocks for the Long Run?

February 12, 2024 – Last week, I wrote about how equities historically outperformed bonds by a comfortable margin. So, the principle of “stocks for the long run” is still valid. Does that mean a portfolio with 100% stocks is a good long-term strategy? That’s a recommendation from another finance research paper that’s gotten a lot of publicity lately. Three finance professors claim that a 100% stocks portfolio, 50% domestic and 50% international stocks, would have consistently outperformed all other conventional wisdom asset allocations, e.g., 60/40, glidepaths in target date funds, etc. Quite a sweeping claim! They claim they have the empirical evidence to prove it.

I have my doubts, though. Let’s take a look…

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Stocks are STILL a great long-run investment!

February 5, 2024 – Two recent papers in the personal finance area have caused enough of a stir that I’ve gotten numerous requests for comment. I noticed that if I compile all my notes, calculations, simulations, and replies, I already have more than half of a new blog post. So, today I would like to share my results with my other readers who might also wonder what to make of those new research ideas. The first paper claims that the famous “Stocks for the Long Run” mantra is all wrong because stocks don’t outperform bonds as reliably as Jeremy Siegel and many prominent finance pundits claim. The second paper effectively claims the opposite, namely that a 100% equity portfolio, half domestic and half international stocks, handily beats any bond portfolio and all diversified stock/bond portfolios, including life-cycle, i.e., target date funds. Thus, the authors claim they have upended decades of personal finance conventional wisdom on stock/bond allocations, diversification, and target date fund glide paths.

Well, isn’t that ironic; both papers can’t be right! So, which one is right? Or are they both wrong, and conventional wisdom prevails? I started this post and wanted to comment on both papers in one single post but then ran out of space. So, I had to split my material into two posts. Today, I share my thoughts on the first paper and on whether stocks are still a good long-run investment in light of the new data. But stay tuned for the follow-up post, likely later this week or early next week!

Let’s take a look…

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